Mixed effects modelling of excess mortality and COVID-19 lockdowns in Thailand.

Accurate mortality data are critical for understanding the impact of COVID-19 and learning lessons from crisis responses. But published statistics risk misrepresenting deaths due to limited testing, underreporting, and lack of subnational data, especially in developing countries. Thailand experienced four COVID-19 waves between January 2020 and December 2021, and used a color-coded, province-level system for lockdowns. To account for deaths directly and indirectly caused by COVID-19, this paper uses mixed effects modelling to estimate counterfactual deaths for 2020-2021 and construct a monthly time series of provincial excess mortality. A fixed effects negative binomial and mixed effects Poisson model both substantiate other studies' estimates of excess deaths using subnational data for the first time. Then, panel regression methods are used to characterize the correlations among restrictions, mobility, and excess mortality. The regressions show that mobility reductions modestly curbed mortality immediately upon imposition, suggesting that aversion of non-COVID deaths was a major aspect of the lockdowns' effect in Thailand. However, the estimates are imprecise. An auto-regressive distributed lag model suggests that the effect of lockdowns was through reduced mobility, but the effectiveness appears to have varied over the course of the pandemic.

Projection of Mortality Burden Attributable to Nonoptimum Temperature with High Spatial Resolution in China.

The updated climate models provide projections at a fine scale, allowing us to estimate health risks due to future warming after accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Here, we utilized an ensemble of high-resolution (25 km) climate simulations and nationwide mortality data from 306 Chinese cities to estimate death anomalies attributable to future warming. Historical estimation (1986-2014) reveals that about 15.5% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI):13.1%, 17.6%] of deaths are attributable to nonoptimal temperature, of which heat and cold corresponded to attributable fractions of 4.1% (eCI:2.4%, 5.5%) and 11.4% (eCI:10.7%, 12.1%), respectively. Under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), the national average temperature was projected to increase by 1.45, 2.57, and 4.98 °C by the 2090s, respectively. The corresponding mortality fractions attributable to heat would be 6.5% (eCI:5.2%, 7.7%), 7.9% (eCI:6.3%, 9.4%), and 11.4% (eCI:9.2%, 13.3%). More than half of the attributable deaths due to future warming would occur in north China and cardiovascular mortality would increase more drastically than respiratory mortality. Our study shows that the increased heat-attributable mortality burden would outweigh the decreased cold-attributable burden even under a moderate climate change scenario across China. The results are helpful for national or local policymakers to better address the challenges of future warming.

Mortality Burden Due to Short-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Korea.

OBJECTIVES: Excess mortality associated with long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been documented. However, research on the disease burden following short-term exposure is scarce. We investigated the cause-specific mortality burden of short-term exposure to PM2.5 by considering the potential non-linear concentration-response relationship in Korea. METHODS: Daily cause-specific mortality rates and PM2.5 exposure levels from 2010 to 2019 were collected for 8 Korean cities and 9 provinces. A generalized additive mixed model was employed to estimate the non-linear relationship between PM2.5 exposure and cause-specific mortality levels. We assumed no detrimental health effects of PM2.5 concentrations below 15 µg/m3. Overall deaths attributable to short-term PM2.5 exposure were estimated by summing the daily numbers of excess deaths associated with ambient PM2.5 exposure. RESULTS: Of the 2 749 704 recorded deaths, 2 453 686 (89.2%) were non-accidental, 591 267 (21.5%) were cardiovascular, and 141 066 (5.1%) were respiratory in nature. A non-linear relationship was observed between all-cause mortality and exposure to PM2.5 at lag0, whereas linear associations were evident for cause-specific mortalities. Overall, 10 814 all-cause, 7855 non-accidental, 1642 cardiovascular, and 708 respiratory deaths were attributed to short-term exposure to PM2.5. The estimated number of all-cause excess deaths due to short-term PM2.5 exposure in 2019 was 1039 (95% confidence interval, 604 to 1472). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate an association between short-term PM2.5 exposure and various mortality rates (all-cause, non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory) in Korea over the period from 2010 to 2019. Consequently, action plans should be developed to reduce deaths attributable to short-term exposure to PM2.5.

[The mortality of children population].

The article presents comprehensive medical statistical analysis of indicators and causes of mortality of children population of the Russian Federation in 2017-2021. It is emphasized that in Russia, in conditions of extremely unfavorable demographic situation, the hyper actual task is to preserve life of every child. It is demonstrated that crucial role in mortality of children population is played by not only infant mortality and mortality of children aged 1-4 years, but also by mortality of children of older ages. The children population mortality still keeps gender and residence differences. The problem of reliable registration of infant mortality is to be revisited since part of newborns born alive are classified after birth as stillborn. Beginning from 2018, the first place was taken by the class "Injuries, poisonings and some other consequences of external causes" driving back the class "Individual conditions occurring in perinatal period". Thus, measures of preventing negative impact of social factors on children health continue to be an important component of modern system of health care of children population. The directions of measures reducing children mortality in Russia are proposed.

[The gender aspects of changes in mortality during COVID-19 pandemic as exemplified by Moscow].

The mortality is a major component of damage caused by COVID-19. The comparative analysis of changes in mortality was carried out on the basis of the ROSSTAT data over 2012-2020 to determine differences in losses of male and female population caused by pandemic in Moscow. It is demonstrated that at close trends in mortality of males and females before pandemic, in 2020 their mortality changed differently. At equal increase of male and female mortality, main contribution into excess mortality (excluding contribution of COVID-19) was made approximately equally by diseases of nervous system and circulatory system in males and diseases of nervous system in females. The male mortality from COVID-19 is 1.9 times higher than female mortality. As a result of younger average age of death the amount of economic losses in terms of years of potential life lost (PYLL) due to premature death of males because of COVID-19 exceeds economic losses due to premature death of females up to 2 times. Although the average age of death of females from all causes decreased by smaller amount, their values of PYLL increased more, mainly due to higher rate of female mortality from disease of nervous system and from mortality related to drug addiction. In Moscow, the highest increase of PYLL is conditioned by dearth related to drug addiction and alcohol consumption. In the structure of this indicator in males they are ranked fourth and fifth. In females, alcohol-related deaths are ranked as sixth and drug-related deaths as eighth. The pandemic, contributing into increase in economic losses, didn't change their leading causes: diseases of circulatory system, external causes and neoplasms in males; neoplasms, diseases of circulatory system and external causes in females. The value of PYLL due to death from COVID-19 takes sixth place in males and fourth place in females.

Trends in parkinson's disease mortality in China from 2004 to 2021: a joinpoint analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to analyze the trends of Parkinson's disease (PD) mortality rates among Chinese residents from 2004 to 2021, provide evidence for the formulation of PD prevention and control strategies to improve the quality of life among PD residents. METHODS: Demographic and sociological data such as gender, urban or rural residency and age were obtained from the National Cause of Death Surveillance Dataset from 2004 to 2021. We then analyzed the trends of PD mortality rates by Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: The PD mortality and standardized mortality rates in China showed an overall increasing trend during 2004-2021 (average annual percentage change [AAPC] = 7.14%, AAPCASMR=3.21%, P < 0.001). The mortality and standardized mortality rate in male (AAPC = 7.65%, AAPCASMR=3.18%, P < 0.001) were higher than that of female (AAPC = 7.03%, AAPCASMR=3.09%, P < 0.001). The PD standardized mortality rates of urban (AAPC = 5.13%, AAPCASMR=1.76%, P < 0.001) and rural (AAPC = 8.40%, AAPCASMR=4.29%, P < 0.001) residents both increased gradually. In the age analysis, the mortality rate increased with age. And the mortality rates of those aged > 85 years was the highest. Considering gender, female aged > 85 years had the fastest mortality trend (annual percentage change [APC] = 5.69%, P < 0.001). Considering urban/rural, rural aged 80-84 years had the fastest mortality trend (APC = 6.68%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rate of PD among Chinese residents increased from 2004 to 2021. Male sex, urban residence and age > 85 years were risk factors for PD-related death and should be the primary focus for PD prevention.

Exploring Patterns of Human Mortality and Aging: A Reliability Theory Viewpoint.

The most important manifestation of aging is an increased risk of death with advancing age, a mortality pattern characterized by empirical regularities known as mortality laws. We highlight three significant ones: the Gompertz law, compensation effect of mortality (CEM), and late-life mortality deceleration and describe new developments in this area. It is predicted that CEM should result in declining relative variability of mortality at older ages. The quiescent phase hypothesis of negligible actuarial aging at younger adult ages is tested and refuted by analyzing mortality of the most recent birth cohorts. To comprehend the aging mechanisms, it is crucial to explain the observed empirical mortality patterns. As an illustrative example of data-directed modeling and the insights it provides, we briefly describe two different reliability models applied to human mortality patterns. The explanation of aging using a reliability theory approach aligns with evolutionary theories of aging, including idea of chronic phenoptosis. This alignment stems from their focus on elucidating the process of organismal deterioration itself, rather than addressing the reasons why organisms are not designed for perpetual existence. This article is a part of a special issue of the journal that commemorates the legacy of the eminent Russian scientist Vladimir Petrovich Skulachev (1935-2023) and his bold ideas about evolution of biological aging and phenoptosis.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess maternal deaths in Brazil: A two-year assessment.

BACKGROUND: Accurate estimates of the COVID-19 pandemic's indirect impacts are crucial, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study aims to update estimates of excess maternal deaths in Brazil during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This was an exploratory mixed ecological study using the counterfactual approach. The observed maternal deaths were gathered from the Mortality Information System (SIM) for the period between March 2015 and February 2022. Expected deaths from March 2020 to February 2022 were estimated using quasipoisson generalized additive models, considering quadrimester, age group, and their interaction as predictor variables. Analyses were performed in R version 4.1.2, RStudio, version 2023.03.1+446 and carried out with support from the "mgcv" and "plot_model" libraries. RESULTS: A total of 5,040 maternal deaths were reported, with varying excess mortality across regions and age groups, resulting in 69% excess maternal mortality throughout Brazil during the first two years of the pandemic. The Southeast region had 50% excess mortality throughout the first two years and 76% excess in the second year. The North region had 69% excess mortality, increasing in the second year, particularly among women aged 20-34. The Northeast region showed 80% excess mortality, with a significant increase in the second year, especially among women aged 35-49. The Central-West region had 75% excess mortality, higher in the second year and statistically significant among women aged 35-49. The South region showed 117% excess mortality, reaching 203% in the second year among women aged 20-34, but no excess mortality in the 10-19 age category. CONCLUSIONS: Over two years, Brazil saw a significant impact on maternal excess deaths, regardless of region and pandemic year. The highest peak occurred between March and June 2021, emphasizing the importance of timely and effective epidemic responses to prevent avoidable deaths and prepare for new crises.

Changes in stillbirths and child and youth mortality in 2020 and 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has been extensively studied for its impact on mortality, particularly in older age groups. However, the pandemic effects on stillbirths and mortality rates in neonates, infants, children and youth remain poorly understood. This study comprehensively analyses the pandemic influence on young mortality and stillbirths across 112 countries and territories in 2020 and 104 in 2021. METHODS: Using data from civil registers and vital statistics systems (CRVS) and the Health Management Information System (HMIS), we estimate expected mortality levels in a non-pandemic setting and relative mortality changes (p-scores) through generalized linear models. The analysis focuses on the distribution of country-specific mortality changes and the proportion of countries experiencing deficits, no changes and excess mortality in each age group. RESULTS: Results show that stillbirths and under-25 mortality were as expected in most countries during 2020 and 2021. However, among countries with changes, more experienced deficits than excess mortality, except for stillbirths, neonates and those aged 10-24 in 2021, where, despite the predominance of no changes, excess mortality prevailed. Notably, a fifth of examined countries saw increases in stillbirths and a quarter in young adult mortality (20-24) in 2021. Our findings are highly consistent between females and males and similar across income levels. CONCLUSION: Despite global disruptions to essential services, stillbirths and youth mortality were as expected in most observed countries, challenging initial hypotheses. However, the study suggests the possibility of delayed adverse effects that require more time to manifest at the population level. Understanding the lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic requires ongoing, long-term monitoring of health and deaths among children and youth, particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

Assessing the relationship between multimorbidity, NCD configurations, frailty phenotypes, and mortality risk in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Older adults are increasingly susceptible to prolonged illness, multiple chronic diseases, and disabilities, which can lead to the coexistence of multimorbidity and frailty. Multimorbidity may result in various noncommunicable disease (NCD) patterns or configurations that could be associated with frailty and death. Mortality risk may vary depending on the presence of specific chronic diseases configurations or frailty. METHODS: The aim was to examine the impact of NCD configurations on mortality risk among older adults with distinct frailty phenotypes. The population was analyzed from the Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Aging Study Cohort (CRELES). A total of 2,662 adults aged 60 or older were included and followed for 5 years. Exploratory factor analysis and various clustering techniques were utilized to identify NCD configurations. The frequency of NCD accumulation was also assessed for a multimorbidity definition. Frailty phenotypes were set according to Fried et al. criteria. Kaplan‒Meier survival analyses, mortality rates, and Cox proportional hazards models were estimated. RESULTS: Four different types of patterns were identified: 'Neuro-psychiatric', 'Metabolic', 'Cardiovascular', and 'Mixt' configurations. These configurations showed a higher mortality risk than the mere accumulation of NCDs [Cardiovascular HR:1.65 (1.07-2.57); 'Mixt' HR:1.49 (1.00-2.22); ≥3 NCDs HR:1.31 (1.09-1.58)]. Frailty exhibited a high and constant mortality risk, irrespective of the presence of any NCD configuration or multimorbidity definition. However, HRs decreased and lost statistical significance when phenotypes were considered in the Cox models [frailty + 'Cardiovascular' HR:1.56 (1.00-2.42); frailty + 'Mixt':1.42 (0.95-2.11); and frailty + ≥ 3 NCDs HR:1.23 (1.02-1.49)]. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty accompanying multimorbidity emerges as a more crucial indicator of mortality risk than multimorbidity alone. Therefore, studying NCD configurations is worthwhile as they may offer improved risk profiles for mortality as alternatives to straightforward counts.

US exceptionalism? International trends in midlife mortality.

BACKGROUND: Rising midlife mortality in the USA has raised concerns, particularly the increase in 'deaths of despair' (due to drugs, alcohol and suicide). Life expectancy is also stalling in other countries such as the UK, but how trends in midlife mortality are evolving outside the USA is less understood. We provide a synthesis of cause-specific mortality trends in midlife (25-64 years of age) for the USA and the UK as well as other high-income and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. METHODS: We document trends in midlife mortality in the USA, UK and a group of 13 high-income countries in Western Europe, Australia, Canada and Japan, as well as seven CEE countries from 1990 to 2019. We use annual mortality data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database to analyse sex- and age-specific (25-44, 45-54 and 55-64 years) age-standardized death rates across 15 major cause-of-death categories. RESULTS: US midlife mortality rates have worsened since 1990 for several causes of death including drug-related, alcohol-related, suicide, metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases, respiratory diseases and infectious/parasitic diseases. Deaths due to homicide, transport accidents and cardiovascular diseases have declined since 1990 but saw recent increases or stalling of improvements. Midlife mortality also increased in the UK for people aged 45-54 year and in Canada, Poland and Sweden among for those aged 25-44 years. CONCLUSIONS: The USA is increasingly falling behind not only high-income, but also CEE countries, some of which were heavily impacted by the post-socialist mortality crisis of the 1990s. Although levels of midlife mortality in the UK are substantially lower than those in the USA overall, there are signs that UK midlife mortality is worsening relative to that in Western Europe.

Decomposing mechanisms of COVID-19 mortality in empirical datasets: A modeling study.

Our objective was to decompose mortality mechanisms during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to estimate direct, indirect, and associated deaths from COVID-19. Given the confirmatory diagnosis of COVID-19, a death event that was not necessarily caused by respiratory complications but stemmed from other complications was categorized as an indirect death from COVID-19. Associated deaths occurred in patients who did not have COVID-19 but died during the surge in COVID-19 cases when overwhelming pressure was exerted on the healthcare system. Analyzing the sixth wave (i.e., the first epidemic wave of the Omicron B.1.1.529 variant from January to May 2022), decomposition was achieved using the binomial and Poisson sampling process models fitted to two pieces of data (i.e., COVID-19 death certificate and excess data by major cause of death). The total numbers of direct, indirect, and associated deaths during the sixth wave in Osaka were estimated at 1,071; 948; and 2,157; respectively. The number of associated deaths was greater than the sum of direct and indirect deaths. We further observed that the composition of indirect and associated deaths differed by major cause of death, and deaths caused by circulatory disease included a greater proportion of indirect deaths compared with deaths by other causes. The goals of healthcare services for endemic COVID-19 include the sustainable provision of services to avoid preventable deaths. Therefore, gaining an in-depth understanding of mechanisms that lead to excess death is vital for improving future pandemic response efforts.

Mortality in women with a history of incarceration in Norway: a 20-year national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Women carry a substantial burden of psychiatric, somatic and lifestyle-related morbidity in the prison context. By describing causes of death and estimating the risk and burden of mortality compared with the general population, this study investigates how mortality operates in this highly marginalized and under-researched population. METHODS: In this registry-based study of all women incarcerated in Norwegian prisons from 2000 to 2019 (N = 11 313), we calculated crude mortality rates, years of lost life and, by using mortality in age-matched women from the general population as a reference, age-standardized mortality ratios and years of lost life rates. RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up time of 10.7 years, at a median age of 50 years, 9% of the population had died (n = 1005). Most deaths (80%) were premature deaths from an avoidable cause. Drug-induced causes and deaths from major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were most frequent (both 32%). Compared with women in the general population, women with a history of incarceration were more likely to die from any cause. Trends in annual age-standardized years of lost life rates suggest that the mortality burden associated with major NCDs has gradually replaced drug-induced causes. CONCLUSIONS: Women with a history of incarceration die at a greater rate than their peers and largely from avoidable causes. The profile of causes contributing to the substantial burden of mortality placed on this population has changed over time and has important implications for future efforts to reduce morbidity and the risk of premature death following release from prison.

Educational inequalities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Japan: national census-linked mortality data for 2010-15.

BACKGROUND: Due to the lack of a national mortality inequality monitoring framework, the overall picture in Japan remains unclear. Here, we investigated educational inequalities in mortality and their cause-specific contribution in Japan. METHOD: Data were obtained by linking the 2010 Japanese population census and death records between 1 October 2010 and 30 September 2015. We included 7 984 451 Japanese people aged 30-79 years who had a unique 'matching key' generated by sex, birth year/month, address (municipality), marital status and age of spouse (9.9% of the total census population). We computed population-weighted all-cause and cause-specific age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) by education level. In addition, we calculated the slope index of inequality (SII), relative index inequality (RII) by education level, and population attributable fraction (PAF) referenced with the highest education (e.g. university graduation). RESULTS: Individuals with less education had higher all-cause and cause-specific ASMRs than highly educated individuals. All-cause SII (per 100 000 person-years) values were 433 (95% CI: 410-457) for men and 235 (95% CI: 217-252) for women. RII values were 1.48 (95% CI: 1.45-1.51) for men and 1.47 (95% CI: 1.43-1.51) for women. Estimated PAFs, excess premature deaths caused by educational inequalities, were 11.6% for men and 16.3% for women, respectively. Cerebrovascular diseases, ischaemic heart diseases and lung cancer were the major contributors to mortality inequalities for both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: This first census-based comprehensive report on cause-specific educational mortality inequalities suggested that differences in unfavourable health risk factors by educational background might be associated with these inequalities in Japan.

Time trends in liver cancer mortality rates in Montenegro from 1990 to 2018.

OBJECTIVE: Liver cancer is the third most common cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Hepatitis B and C infections are the main factors affecting mortality. During recent years, Montenegro conducted activities on eradication of viral hepatitis according to the global strategy for the primary prevention of liver cancer mortality. The objective of this study was to assess the liver cancer mortality trend in Montenegro for the period of 1990-2018 using regression techniques. METHODS: liver cancer mortality data in Montenegro from 1990 to 2018 were collected. Mortality rates were age standardized to the World Standard Population. The joinpoint, linear and Poisson regressions were used to assess liver cancer mortality trends both overall and gender specific. RESULTS: The mortality trend was constant, with no significant increase or decrease in mortality rates both at the overall level and by gender. The number of cases, however, increases significantly at the overall level by an average of 1.4% per year [average annual percentage change (AAPC) (95% confidence interval, CI): 1.4 (0.5-2.3); P  = 0.004] and in women by 1.9% per year [AAPC (95% CI): 1.9 (0.8-3.1); P  = 0.002]. In men, there was no change in the number of cases. The three age groups most burdened by mortality from liver cancer were 65-74 (34.9%), 75-84 (26.6%) and 55-64 (25.8%). CONCLUSION: The consistent implementation of prevention measures and hepatitis virus infection treatment has played a role in partially favorable liver cancer mortality trends in Montenegro. It is crucial to closely monitor guidelines for this cancer and give particular attention to the elderly population as the most affected.

Cause-of-Death Determinants of Lifespan Inequality.

We propose a novel decomposition approach that breaks down the levels and trends of lifespan inequality as the sum of cause-of-death contributions. The suggested method shows whether the levels and changes in lifespan inequality are attributable to the levels and changes in (1) the extent of inequality in the cause-specific age-at-death distribution (the "Inequality" component), (2) the total share of deaths attributable to each cause (the "Proportion" component), or (3) the cause-specific mean age at death (the "Mean" component). This so-called Inequality-Proportion-Mean (or IPM) method is applied to 10 low-mortality countries in Europe. Our findings suggest that the most prevalent causes of death (in our setting, "circulatory system" and "neoplasms") do not necessarily contribute the most to overall levels of lifespan inequality. In fact, "perinatal and congenital" causes are the strongest drivers of lifespan inequality declines. The contribution of the IPM components to changes in lifespan inequality varies considerably across causes, genders, and countries. Among the three components, the Mean one explains the least lifespan inequality dynamics, suggesting that shifts in cause-specific mean ages at death alone contributed little to changes in lifespan inequality.

Sarcopenia and All-Cause Mortality Risk in Community-Dwelling Rural Malaysian Older Adults.

Sarcopenia is associated with numerous adverse health outcomes, including frailty, disability, and mortality. Since the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia 2019 guidelines, which were published in 2020, are relatively new, studies on the association between sarcopenia as defined by these guidelines and mortality are limited in the Asian region. Accordingly, this study aimed to examine the all-cause mortality risk associated with sarcopenia among community-dwelling older adults in rural Malaysia. This cohort study included 2404 older adults residing in Kuala Pilah District, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia who were followed up for 83 months. The prevalence rates of sarcopenia and severe sarcopenia were 5.0% and 3.60%, respectively. Older adults with sarcopenia and severe sarcopenia had a 114% (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.14) and 146% (HR: 2.46) increased mortality risk compared with those without sarcopenia (HR: 2.14). Our findings indicate that early intervention is recommended to prevent sarcopenia in older adults.

Mortality Among Users of Anabolic Steroids.

This cohort study investigates mortality and cause of death among a large cohort of androgenic anabolic steroid users, compared with a control group, in Denmark from January 3, 2006, to March 1, 2018.

Early effective intervention can significantly reduce all-cause mortality in prediabetic patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis based on high-quality clinical studies.

Background: Reducing the occurrence of diabetes is considered a primary criterion for evaluating the effectiveness of interventions for prediabetes. There is existing evidence that early lifestyle-based interventions can significantly decrease the incidence of diabetes. However, whether effective interventions can reduce long-term outcomes in patients, including all-cause mortality, cardiovascular risks, and the occurrence of microvascular complications, which are the most concerning issues for both patients and clinicians, remains a subject of inconsistent research findings. And there is no direct evidence to answer whether effective intervention has long-term benefits for prediabetic patients. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the relationship between early effective intervention and macrovascular and microvascular complications in prediabetic patients. Methods: PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched for the randomized controlled trials of lifestyle or/and drugs intervention in prediabetes from inception to 2023.9.15. Two investigators independently reviewed the included studies and extracted relevant data. Random or fixed effects model meta-analysis to derive overall relative risk (RR) with 95% CI for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and microvascular complications. Results: As of September 15, 2023, a total of 7 effective intervention studies were included, comprising 26 articles out of 25,671 articles. These studies involved 26,389 patients with a total follow-up duration of 178,038.6 person-years. The results indicate that effective intervention can significantly reduce all-cause mortality in prediabetic patients without a history of cardiovascular disease by 17% (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.70-0.98). Additionally, effective intervention reduced the incidence of retinopathy by 38% (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.70-0.98). Furthermore, the study results suggest that women and younger individuals have lower all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Subsequently, we conducted an in-depth analysis of patients without a history of cardiovascular disease. The results revealed that prediabetic patients with a 10-year cardiovascular risk >10% experienced more significant benefits in terms of all-cause mortality (P=0.01). When comparing the results of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality from the Da Qing Diabetes Prevention Outcome Study longitudinally, it was evident that the duration of follow-up is a key factor influencing long-term benefits. In other words, the beneficial effects become more pronounced as the intervention duration reaches a certain threshold. Conclusion: Early effective intervention, which significantly reduces the incidence of diabetes, can effectively lower all-cause mortality in prediabetic patients without a history of cardiovascular disease (especially those with a 10-year cardiovascular risk >10%), with women and younger individuals benefiting more significantly. Additionally, the duration of follow-up is a key factor influencing outcomes. The conclusions of this study can provide evidence-based guidance for the clinical treatment of prediabetic patients to prevent cardiovascular and microvascular complications. Systematic review registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero, identifier CRD42020160985.